Guatemala Weather Alerts Today: INSIVUMEH and CONRED

Most searches for a Guatemalan weather alert end at a colour. But what decides whether a hillside gives way or a river jumps its banks is measured daily, and published in PDFs almost nobody outside Guatemala reads.

Two agencies, two jobs

INSIVUMEH measures. CONRED declares. CONRED’s hydrometeorological-hazards protocol — cover dated “Actualización: febrero 2019”, still linked as current from CONRED’s protocols page — makes INSIVUMEH “el responsable de mantener monitoreo permanente de las amenazas hidrometeorológicas” and of officialising event information for the CONRED system.

Alert colours belong to CONRED, and CONRED’s alert levels are set out on our emergency alerts page rather than repeated here. Which colour is declared right now, and what it obliges, is tracked on the CONRED alert level page. One distinction does travel badly: CONRED’s glossary defines an alerta institucional as one declared by an institution’s own highest authority under its Plan Institucional de Respuesta, while an alerta pública is “declarada únicamente por el Consejo Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres de CONRED”. Both run green, yellow, orange, red — so “orange alert” is not information until you know which kind it is, and for which hazard.

Red, in CONRED’s words, is declared “según la magnitud del evento, su impacto en la población y capacidades de respuesta del Sistema CONRED. En casos de eventos súbitos la alerta roja se declarará de forma inmediata” (retrieved 12 September 2026) — three criteria, not one, and “immediately” attaches to the declaration, not the response.

The alert on the books is for drought

CONRED’s bulletin of 11 September 2026 (Nota de Prensa No. 289-2026) states that “la CONRED declaró Alerta Anaranjada Nacional”, strengthening coordination and monitoring around “la inseguridad alimentaria, pérdida de cultivos y condiciones de temperatura y precipitación”. Its guidance is about using water responsibly and protecting soil moisture with vegetation cover.

That is a National Orange Alert for too little rain, standing during a rainy season in which CONRED counted 1,559 emergencies and 195,286 people affected as of 22 September 2026 (Boletín Informativo No. 300-2026), led by floods, fallen trees, landslides and collapses. Both are true at once, which is why a colour on its own is useless.

Two limits: the bulletin is past tense and gives no declaration date, and CONRED publishes no live alert-status page. Take it as the position on 11 September 2026; open the bulletin for anything newer.

BESS: the landslide warning that arrives before the rain

The product almost no English-language page mentions is the Boletín Especial por Saturación del Suelo (BESS): insivumeh.gob.gt/hidrologia/hidro/saturacion/BESS.pdf.

It reports, by department and municipality, where soil sits at or above 90% saturation, using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model from the Central America Flash Flood Guidance System (CAFFG), in two layers: upper, to 30 cm; lower, from 30 cm to between 1 and 3 metres.

Why 90% matters, in INSIVUMEH’s words: at that point “la infiltración de la lluvia en el suelo disminuye, escurriendo directamente hacia los cauces fluviales, incrementando la posibilidad de crecidas”, and those conditions “pueden provocar inestabilidad en algunos suelos”. As a decision rule: where the ground is already full, the next ordinary storm behaves like an extraordinary one.

The bulletin of 12 September 2026, 06:00 (BESS-2026-081) reported no department at or above 90% in the upper layer, and Puerto Barrios and Livingston (Izabal) at or above 90% in the lower — a dated reading, not a live status. The series runs roughly daily in the rainy season (BESS-2026-044 on 31 July, BESS-2026-069 on 31 August), so open the PDF for the current one.

CONRED cites it by number when warning about landslides: its Sololá and Suchitepéquez notice rests on “BESS-2026-069, emitido por el INSIVUMEH este 31 de agosto”.

Daily river levels, by watershed

INSIVUMEH also publishes a daily bulletin per watershed, each at a stable URL, from its boletín diario de hidrología aplicada:

Each is a station table: river, municipio and departamento, normal minimum and maximum level and flow, current level and instantaneous flow, and a trend column reading decrease, hold or increase. The Pacific bulletin of 12 September 2026 was numbered 763 for the year and stamped 08:00. The trend column is the part to read.

You do not have to open three PDFs to do that: we parse all three every day and put every station in one table, against its own published normal range, on river levels today.

Product names, and one page not to trust

• There is no numbered “aviso meteorológico”. The event-driven warning INSIVUMEH issues is the Boletín Meteorológico Especial NN-YYYY. The numbered series that do exist are BESS (soil saturation) and BEFGO (volcanic ash).
• BESS points to three further flood products — the Pronóstico Basado en Impactos, the Pronóstico de Crecidas por Precipitación and the Índice de Crecidas Repentinas — but no stable file URL was found for them on 12 September 2026.
• Do not rely on INSIVUMEH’s website forecast page for today’s weather. Its synopsis is a single image which, checked on 12 September 2026, had last been modified on 7 June 2026. The genuinely daily INSIVUMEH products are the hydrological ones above and its air quality output; forecasts reach the public through CONRED’s bulletins and the official accounts (facebook.com/conredgt, x.com/ConredGuatemala).

What to do, by stage

Ordinary rainy season. CONRED’s standing guidance: stay informed through official sources, do not cross swollen rivers or flooded streets, identify evacuation routes, and keep rubbish out of streets and drains, since blockages cause flooding. Emergencies go to 119.

Your municipality appears in BESS at or above 90%. CONRED’s saturation bulletins add: identify safe areas in your community, keep the 72-hour backpack ready, follow local authorities. This is the stage to move a vehicle off a cut slope and check road closures.

An alert is declared, or water is rising. CONRED’s wording is “De ser necesario, aplique el principio de autoevacuación siguiendo las indicaciones de las autoridades”. Self-evacuation is explicitly sanctioned — you do not need permission to leave.

The calendar, as the agencies state it

CONRED, attributing INSIVUMEH, describes a rainy season “que se registra de mayo a octubre”, with a canícula — a temporary dip in rainfall — “entre los meses de julio y agosto”. That wording was published for the 2025 season; INSIVUMEH’s 2026 forecasts gave earlier and different canícula windows, which should not be merged. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center puts the Atlantic season at 1 June to 30 November and the eastern Pacific at 15 May to 30 November, peaking in the Atlantic on 10 September. As CONRED notes, not every system threatens Guatemala directly, but these can still favour rain, flash floods and landslides.

For live storm positions see the hurricane tracker; for regional climate, the climate zone comparison; for related hazards, earthquakes and volcanoes; for what the rains do to the lake, the Lake Atitlán water level series.