October is the last month of Guatemala’s rainy season: INSIVUMEH’s October 2026 outlook forecast 150 to 700 mm of rain on the Pacific side, the Bocacosta, Petén and the Caribbean, cooler nights in the highlands, and no cold fronts. The one fixed date is Revolution Day, 20 October, a paid holiday that does not move to a Monday; in 2027 it is a Wednesday.

In short: Expect rain, heaviest on the Pacific slope, Petén and the Caribbean; the western highlands and Altiplano Central were forecast to be the coolest regions (minimums of 7 to 17 °C in October 2026). Both hurricane seasons are still running, and the National Hurricane Center puts most Atlantic activity between mid-August and mid-October. The 20 October holiday stays on Wednesday 20 October 2027. INSIVUMEH forecast the season’s first cold fronts for November.

For the whole year in one table, see the best time to visit Guatemala by month. The month before is Guatemala in September, the wettest stretch of the year; the month after is Guatemala in November, when the dry season begins.

What INSIVUMEH forecast for October

INSIVUMEH, Guatemala’s national weather service, published its October 2026 outlook on 2 October 2026. It is a forecast for one year, not a climate normal, and 2026 was an El Niño year: the same outlook gave a 100% probability of El Niño conditions from September-November 2026 through February-April 2027.

Region (INSIVUMEH’s names)October 2026 outlook
Pacific, Bocacosta, Franja Transversal del Norte, Petén, CaribbeanHigh rain activity, accumulations of 150 to 700 mm
Whole countryPossible rain deficit of 60 to 200 mm against normal, varying sharply between regions
West (Occidente) and Altiplano CentralCoolest regions: mean 12 to 22 °C, minimum 7 to 17 °C
Rest of the countryMean 20 to 29 °C, minimum 15 to 25 °C
Cold frontsNone forecast for October; two for November

CONRED, the disaster-management agency, summarised the same outlook on 1 October 2026. It expected rain below usual levels nationally, the largest totals in the Bocacosta, the Pacific, Petén and the Caribbean, and the rain concentrated in the first and last weeks of the month. It warned that conditions could still favour flash floods, flooding, landslides and lahars along the volcanic chain. It added that the cold season generally begins in the second half of October.

How October 2026 actually ended. On 23 October 2026 INSIVUMEH reported 5 °C at dawn on 22 and 23 October in Todos Santos Cuchumatán, Huehuetenango, the lowest reading so far that season. It forecast less rain nationwide in the last week of October and minimums of 14 to 16 °C in Guatemala City. On 27 October it said that September and October 2026 had brought minimums of 12 to 16 °C in Totonicapán, Huehuetenango, San Marcos, Chimaltenango and Sacatepéquez.

Long-run October averages by place

These are October values from our parent guide’s 1996-2025 Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis series: average daily high/low in °C (°F in brackets) and October’s rounded share of the year’s rain. They are historical model averages, not station normals and not a forecast.

PlaceOctober high/lowShare of the year’s rain
Antigua (1,540 m)24/16 (74/60)14%
Guatemala City—15%
Lake Atitlán, Panajachel (1,580 m)22/17 (71/62)13%
Xela (2,360 m)18/13 (65/55)12%
Tikal (300 m)29/22 (84/71)15%
Flores—14%
Semuc Champey (Lanquín)—12%
Livingston (sea level)28/24 (83/74)12%
Monterrico (sea level)29/24 (84/75)17%

On this series October is still a wet month everywhere, and wettest in proportion at Monterrico on the Pacific coast (17%). Guatemala City, Flores and Semuc Champey have rain shares only; the series gives no October temperatures for them.

Hurricane season in October

The US National Hurricane Center (NOAA) gives the Atlantic season as 1 June to 30 November, with its peak on 10 September and most activity between mid-August and mid-October. The eastern Pacific season, on Guatemala’s other coast, runs 15 May to 30 November. INSIVUMEH’s October 2026 outlook counted seven named Atlantic storms so far that year, and 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific.

For active systems use the hurricane tracker; for national warnings, the CONRED alert level.

October dates to plan around

DateWhatStatus
1 OctoberDía del NiñoNot on Article 127’s list of paid holidays
4 October (Monday in 2027)San Francisco de Asís, Panajachel’s patronal dayDated by the Diócesis de Sololá-Chimaltenango
First Sunday of October (3 October 2027)Virgen del Rosario procession, Guatemala CityIn 2026 it left the Santo Domingo basilica at 12:00 on 4 October
20 October (Wednesday in 2027)Día de la RevoluciónArticle 127 paid holiday; stays on its date
31 October (Sunday in 2027)HalloweenNot a holiday; 1 November is

Revolution Day stays put. Article 127 of the Labour Code lists 20 October among the paid holidays for private-sector workers. Decreto 19-2018 first included 20 October and 1 May among the holidays moved to a Monday, but on 17 March 2020 the Corte de Constitucionalidad (case 5536-2018) ruled that both must be read into the list of exceptions. So in 2027 the holiday is Wednesday 20 October. The full year is on Guatemala holidays 2027.

Panajachel and Guatemala City. The diocese dates Panajachel’s patronal celebration, San Francisco de Asís, to 4 October; Article 127 also makes the local feast day a paid holiday where it applies. The Panajachel feria page covers what happens in town. In Guatemala City, Prensa Libre reported that the 2026 first-Sunday-of-October procession of the Virgen del Rosario left the basilica in zona 1 at 12:00 on 4 October; the Virgen del Rosario page has the route and the month’s programme. Other patron-saint fairs are listed by department on October ferias.

Children’s Day and Halloween. Neither 1 October nor 31 October is on Article 127’s list. The Día del Niño page and Halloween in Guatemala explain what does happen on each.

Planning an October trip

  • Rain timing. CONRED’s 2026 bulletin put the rain mainly in the first and last weeks of the month. Leave a spare day in any route that crosses the Bocacosta, Petén or the Caribbean side.
  • Volcano hikes. INSIVUMEH’s 27 October 2026 forecast said temperatures on the volcano ascents could fall to between 5 °C and 0 °C in the cold season. Pack for that on an overnight hike, and check the Acatenango summit weather before you go.
  • Clothing. A rain layer and a warm evening layer cover both the coast and the highlands. The packing guide breaks it down by region.

Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

Is October a good month to visit Guatemala?

It works if you can live with rain. INSIVUMEH’s outlook for October 2026 forecast heavy rain on the Pacific coast, the Bocacosta, the Franja Transversal del Norte, Petén and the Caribbean (150 to 700 mm), while the western highlands and Altiplano Central were forecast to be the coolest regions. CONRED expected the rain to fall mainly in the first and last weeks of the month. Plan the highlands for clearer days and allow slack for road travel.

Is 20 October a holiday in Guatemala?

Yes. Article 127 of the Labour Code lists 20 October among the paid holidays for private-sector workers. The Constitutional Court ruled on 17 March 2020 (case 5536-2018) that 20 October and 1 May are excluded from the Monday shift in Decreto 19-2018, so the holiday stays on its date. In 2027 it falls on a Wednesday.

Is October hurricane season in Guatemala?

Yes. The US National Hurricane Center gives both the Atlantic season (1 June to 30 November) and the eastern Pacific season (15 May to 30 November) as running through October. It says most Atlantic activity falls between mid-August and mid-October.

How cold is it in the highlands in October?

INSIVUMEH’s October 2026 outlook forecast minimum temperatures of 7 to 17 °C in the Altiplano Central and the west. On 22 and 23 October 2026 it recorded 5 °C at dawn in Todos Santos Cuchumatán, Huehuetenango, the lowest reading of the season to that date.

Are there cold fronts in October?

INSIVUMEH’s October 2026 outlook forecast none for October and two for November. CONRED noted that the cold season generally begins in the second half of October, but that no cold fronts were forecast for October 2026.