Guatemala’s population has two official-looking answers, and they do not match. The national statistics institute, INE, projects 18,312,373 people for 30 June 2026. The World Bank publishes its own series; in its World Development Indicators release of 13 July 2026 the latest year is 2025, at 18,687,881, which is 608,071 people (3.4%) more than INE’s projection for that same year. This page shows both, never blended: the World Bank figures are re-read every day from its API, and INE’s come straight from the projection workbooks INE publishes.
The two numbers
Pulled Sep 25, 2026 at 13:19 Guatemala time from World Bank (World Development Indicators API).
| Source | What it is | Year | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| INE Guatemala | Projection (2019 revision, midyear) | 2026 | 18,312,373 |
| INE Guatemala | Projection (2019 revision, midyear) | 2025 | 18,079,810 |
| World Bank | Midyear estimate (WDI; sources include UN World Population Prospects) | 2025 | 18,687,881 |
For 2025, the World Bank estimate is 608,071 people higher than INE's projection (3.4%). They are two separate calculations; this page does not average them. WDI release: 2026-07-13.
Why the two differ
- INE’s series is a projection, not a count. Its national workbook is INE’s 2019 revision, credited to INE “con el apoyo de CELADE - División de Población de la CEPAL” (with the support of CELADE, CEPAL’s population division). INE’s methodology document says the analysis of the 2018 census supplied the fundamental inputs for this update. Every figure is the population at 30 June.
- The 2018 census counted fewer people than INE’s own 2018 figure. The XII national census counted 14,901,286 people in 2018. INE’s series for mid-2018 is 16,346,950. INE’s glossary explains the difference: the base population for its projections is the counted population plus the population the census omitted, and assumptions about births, deaths and international migration are applied from that base. INE’s methodology estimates that the 2018 census missed 9.0% of the population (10.4% of men, 7.6% of women).
- The World Bank figure is a separate estimate. Its indicator (SP.POP.TOTL) counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship, as midyear estimates; the sources it lists include the UN World Population Prospects and national statistical offices. It is a different series from INE’s projection: for 2025 the two differ by 608,071 people.
- Quote the source and the year. The two series are not interchangeable, so a population figure without its source and year cannot be checked.
Year by year, 2018 to 2030
INE’s series runs to 2050; the World Bank’s stops at its latest release. The arrow marks the current year.
Pulled Sep 25, 2026 at 13:19 Guatemala time from World Bank (World Development Indicators API).
| Year | INE projection | INE growth | World Bank estimate | World Bank growth | Gap (WB minus INE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 16,346,950 | 1.61% | 16,845,685 | 1.67% | 498,735 |
| 2019 | 16,604,026 | 1.57% | 17,103,803 | 1.52% | 499,777 |
| 2020 | 16,858,333 | 1.53% | 17,357,325 | 1.47% | 498,992 |
| 2021 | 17,109,746 | 1.49% | 17,598,650 | 1.38% | 488,904 |
| 2022 | 17,357,886 | 1.45% | 17,847,877 | 1.41% | 489,991 |
| 2023 | 17,602,431 | 1.41% | 18,124,838 | 1.54% | 522,407 |
| 2024 | 17,843,132 | 1.37% | 18,406,359 | 1.54% | 563,227 |
| 2025 | 18,079,810 | 1.33% | 18,687,881 | 1.52% | 608,071 |
| 2026 ← | 18,312,373 | 1.29% | not published yet | — | — |
| 2027 | 18,540,770 | 1.25% | not published yet | — | — |
| 2028 | 18,764,984 | 1.21% | not published yet | — | — |
| 2029 | 18,985,066 | 1.17% | not published yet | — | — |
| 2030 | 19,201,062 | 1.14% | not published yet | — | — |
INE: population at 30 June of each year; INE growth is the change from one year to the next in its own series. World Bank: midyear estimate and its own annual growth (indicator SP.POP.GROW). The World Bank puts the urban share in 2025 at 56.3% of the total.
INE projects the country to pass 19 million in 2030 (19,201,062) and 20 million in 2034 (20,025,745). In INE’s series the yearly increase shrinks every year: 1.29% from 2025 to 2026.
By department
INE projects every department separately, and the 22 departmental figures add up exactly to its national total. For 2026, Guatemala department (which contains Guatemala City) holds 3,755,757 people, about 20.5% of the country; with Huehuetenango and Alta Verapaz, the three largest hold about 37%. Each department name links to our page on it.
| # | Department | INE projection 2026 | Share of country | Men | Women | Change since 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guatemala | 3,755,757 | 20.5% | 1,810,125 | 1,945,632 | +6.8% |
| 2 | Huehuetenango | 1,533,735 | 8.4% | 757,936 | 775,799 | +11.8% |
| 3 | Alta Verapaz | 1,482,083 | 8.1% | 741,588 | 740,495 | +11.5% |
| 4 | San Marcos | 1,271,974 | 6.9% | 624,719 | 647,255 | +8.5% |
| 5 | Quiché | 1,173,669 | 6.4% | 577,871 | 595,798 | +10.4% |
| 6 | Quetzaltenango | 974,752 | 5.3% | 456,472 | 518,280 | +8.7% |
| 7 | Escuintla | 854,115 | 4.7% | 437,341 | 416,774 | +7.9% |
| 8 | Chimaltenango | 808,669 | 4.4% | 409,152 | 399,517 | +10.3% |
| 9 | Petén | 666,257 | 3.6% | 342,863 | 323,394 | +8.6% |
| 10 | Suchitepéquez | 646,587 | 3.5% | 320,620 | 325,967 | +6.8% |
| 11 | Jutiapa | 580,689 | 3.2% | 288,836 | 291,853 | +6.4% |
| 12 | Totonicapán | 528,065 | 2.9% | 251,981 | 276,084 | +8.5% |
| 13 | Sololá | 507,638 | 2.8% | 246,951 | 260,687 | +8.6% |
| 14 | Chiquimula | 476,362 | 2.6% | 230,575 | 245,787 | +7.9% |
| 15 | Izabal | 474,800 | 2.6% | 237,314 | 237,486 | +7.8% |
| 16 | Santa Rosa | 471,823 | 2.6% | 232,795 | 239,028 | +7.0% |
| 17 | Jalapa | 432,547 | 2.4% | 213,490 | 219,057 | +9.7% |
| 18 | Sacatepéquez | 426,324 | 2.3% | 210,116 | 216,208 | +9.3% |
| 19 | Retalhuleu | 401,613 | 2.2% | 199,783 | 201,830 | +8.2% |
| 20 | Baja Verapaz | 360,693 | 2.0% | 178,565 | 182,128 | +10.0% |
| 21 | Zacapa | 283,788 | 1.5% | 139,129 | 144,659 | +6.0% |
| 22 | El Progreso | 200,433 | 1.1% | 98,810 | 101,623 | +3.8% |
| Country total | 18,312,373 | 100% | 9,007,032 | 9,305,341 | +8.6% |
INE departmental projections, 2019-2020 revision, population at 30 June. The 22 rows add up exactly to INE's national total.
Between INE’s 2020 and 2026 figures, Huehuetenango (+11.8%) and Alta Verapaz (+11.5%) grow fastest, and El Progreso (+3.8%) slowest; Guatemala department grows 6.8%, below the national 8.6%.
Guatemala City, Mixco, Villa Nueva and Antigua
INE also publishes a projection for every municipality, in a separate workbook (Estimaciones y Proyecciones Municipales 2015-2035, read 25 September 2026). For 2026:
| Municipality (INE) | Department | INE projection, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Guatemala (Guatemala City) | Guatemala | 1,242,219 |
| Mixco | Guatemala | 558,989 |
| Villa Nueva | Guatemala | 518,596 |
| Antigua Guatemala | Sacatepéquez | 62,839 |
INE’s figures are for whole municipalities (municipios), not only the town each is named after, and Mixco and Villa Nueva are separate municipalities, so the Guatemala City figure does not include them. See the Antigua Guatemala page and the Guatemala department page.
What these numbers do not tell you
- They are projections, not counts. The last count was the 2018 census; every later year is a modelled figure from INE or the World Bank.
- They are not the diaspora. Guatemalans living abroad are a separate question; for the US, see Guatemalans in the US by state.
- INE’s workbooks are the 2019-2020 revision. INE’s projections page lists no newer revision (read 25 September 2026). If INE publishes one, the figures on this page change with it.
Sources
Sources: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) Guatemala, population estimates and projections (national 1950-2050 and departmental 2010-2050 workbooks, read 2026-09-25; the Estimaciones y Proyecciones Municipales 2015-2035 workbook for the municipal table, read 2026-09-25; the national methodology); World Bank, World Development Indicators (SP.POP.TOTL, SP.POP.GROW, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), licensed CC BY 4.0. Our changes: tables rearranged; percentages and gaps calculated by us.
- INE, XII Censo Nacional de Población y VII de Vivienda 2018 (the census count of 14,901,286).
- World Bank, SP.POP.TOTL for Guatemala.
- Related: Guatemala statistics (official prices, wages and exchange rates) and all 22 departments.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the population of Guatemala in 2026?
Guatemala’s national statistics institute (INE) projects 18,312,373 people at 30 June 2026 (its 2019 projection revision). The World Bank publishes its own estimate, which for 2025 was 18,687,881 in the World Development Indicators release of 13 July 2026; the World Bank had no 2026 figure yet at that release. The two are separate calculations and are shown side by side on this page.
Why does the World Bank give a different number from INE?
They are two separate calculations. INE’s series is its own 2019 projection revision, made with the support of CELADE, CEPAL’s population division; INE’s methodology says the analysis of the 2018 census supplied its fundamental inputs. The World Bank’s total is a midyear estimate whose listed sources include the UN World Population Prospects. For 2025 the World Bank figure is 608,071 people (3.4%) above INE’s.
How many people did the 2018 census count?
The XII national population census of 2018 counted 14,901,286 people, according to INE’s census results. INE’s own series for mid-2018 is higher (16,346,950): its methodology treats that figure as the reconciled base population at 30 June 2018 and estimates that the 2018 census missed 9.0% of the population (10.4% of men, 7.6% of women).
Which department of Guatemala has the most people?
Guatemala department, which contains Guatemala City, with an INE projection of 3,755,757 for 2026, about 20.5% of the country. Huehuetenango (1,533,735) and Alta Verapaz (1,482,083) come next. El Progreso is the smallest, at 200,433.
What is the population of Guatemala City and of Antigua?
INE projects 1,242,219 people for the municipality of Guatemala (Guatemala City) in 2026, and 62,839 for the municipality of Antigua Guatemala. Both figures cover the whole municipality, not only the town. The neighbouring municipalities of Mixco (558,989) and Villa Nueva (518,596) are counted separately.
