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Full forecast track map on the Live Storm Tracker.
Hurricane Polo is being monitored by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center near Central America. This page summarizes its forecast track and what it means for Guatemala — the box above refreshes itself every 6 hours.
Forecast Track (advisory of 2026-09-23)
| When (GT time) | Forecast position | Intensity |
|---|---|---|
| 12:00 AM CST September 23, 2026 | 14.8°N, 101.2°W | 167 mph |
| 6:00 AM CST September 23, 2026 | 15.0°N, 101.6°W | 161 mph |
| 6:00 PM CST September 23, 2026 | 15.9°N, 102.8°W | 167 mph |
| 6:00 AM CST September 24, 2026 | 16.4°N, 104.3°W | 161 mph |
| 6:00 PM CST September 24, 2026 | 16.6°N, 106.1°W | 155 mph |
| 6:00 AM CST September 25, 2026 | 16.8°N, 108.0°W | 144 mph |
The track updates every 6 hours — the live map with every point is on the Storm Tracker. Average forecast error is ~100 km at 24 hours and 250+ km at 72 hours: read the table as a cone of possibilities, not an exact path.
What to Watch in Guatemala
- Accumulated rain, not category. Guatemala’s storm disasters (Mitch, Stan, Agatha, Eta/Iota) were rain events on saturated soil, several without local landfall. Watch rainfall by department against the 30-year average.
- Landslides on highland and boca costa roads — avoid mountain highways (Cito Zarco, CA-9 south) during and 48 hours after peak rain.
- Pacific river flooding on the south coast — follow CONRED evacuation notices.
- Volcano lahars on Fuego and Santiaguito canyons — never cross drainages in rain.
- Travel status — storms, volcano and seismic feeds in one place on Guatemala Right Now.
Follow the System Live
- Hurricane & Storm Tracker — position, forecast track map, distance to Guatemala, GOES satellite
- Weather Hub — real-time accumulated rainfall by department
- Guatemala Right Now — the one-page live travel status
- Hurricane Season Guatemala 2026 — the full season outlook
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is hurricane Polo right now?
The position changes every few hours — the live box on this page and our storm tracker show the latest NHC position with the distance to Guatemala in kilometers, updated every 6 hours while storms are active.
Will Polo affect Guatemala?
The live box shows the minimum forecast approach to Guatemala along the official NHC track. Inside ~500 km, outer rain bands typically reach the country; inside 250 km, expect a CONRED response. Track error averages 100-250 km — and for Guatemala the rain impact happens with or without an exact landfall.
Is it safe to travel to Guatemala during hurricane Polo?
Tourist cores (Antigua, Guatemala City, Lake Atitlán) usually face rain-day logistics rather than danger: postponed volcano hikes, slower roads, possible flight delays. The genuine risks are mountain-road landslides during peak rain and Pacific coast river flooding. Check the live status on our Guatemala Right Now page before changing plans.
Is rain or wind the bigger danger in Guatemala?
Rain, by far. Guatemala’s deadliest storms — Agatha 2010 (152 deaths at tropical-storm strength), Stan 2005 (~670 deaths without organized landfall) — were rain disasters on saturated volcanic soil. Watch accumulated rainfall by department, not the storm’s category.
